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John Burns's picture

Housing Booming, Busting, and Muddling Along

Housing is local again! Our consultants and clients see vastly different housing markets all across the country. I categorize them into three groups (booming, busting, and muddling) in this article and provide anecdotes from our team members—but it is really more complicated than that.

Booming Markets

I find three primary reasons that certain housing markets are booming:

The Boomerang Veers Off Course

Of the 5.3 million households who lost their home to a foreclosure or short sale from 2007 to 2013, we believe that:

  • 889,000 have already repurchased a home.
  • 1.6 million will be stuck renting for at least the next seven years.
  • 2.8 million will become homeowners again by 2021 (“boomerang” buyers).

Single-family rental landlords and homeowners will benefit from boomerang buyer demand. Riverside-San Bernardino will see the greatest activity, followed closely by Los Angeles and Phoenix.

Renters

The renter households created each year by foreclosures and short sales has declined over the past few years. Still, we expect a significant number of these households to rent for the foreseeable future. Single-family rentals should benefit the most from these renters. Note our estimate of the trend in renter households caused by the 2007–2013 distress:

John Burns's picture

Supply and Demand in the Balance

We look at the housing demand/supply balance two ways: