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Lisa Marquis Jackson's picture

Bumps in the Road to Recovery, Part 1: Labor

We are bullish on a blossoming housing recovery as supply, demand and affordability factors align to drive real home price appreciation and new construction in 2013.

That said, the road leading out of a downturn is rarely a smooth one. One head-scratcher many of our clients have been struggling to understand is the delay between starts and completions. The chart below shows the difference in growth rates for starts and completions across the four major US regions.  

growth 

Written by Rick Palacios Jr. and Ali Wolf

Home builders captured market share in 2012 for the first time since 2005, accounting for just over 7% of all home sales, and we believe even more market share is in the cards for 2013. Over the last 20 years, new homes have constituted 13% of total home sales. At +20% y/y, the new home market more than doubled the +9% y/y growth achieved in the resale market last year. As shown below, this recovery is playing out very differently from that of the 2001-2005 upturn, where new and resale sales growth moved almost in lockstep.

New vs. Existing Home Sales
(Annual % Change)

John Burns's picture

More Than 30% of California Home Deals All Cash


Click to view.

John was on Fox Business News today discussing the housing market rebound in California.