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Pete Reeb's picture

How Much Is Too Much?

by Pete Reeb

The headline screams, "Southern California New Home Inventory Has Almost Doubled since the Beginning of 2013." Terrible news, right? Not necessarily. Even with the increase, new home inventory levels* are still near all-time record lows and are highly unlikely to reach back up to prior highs.

by John Burns

More people were born in the 1950s (41 million) than in any other decade, and they are dropping out of the workforce in droves. Those born in the 1950s will begin turning 65 in 2015. In fact, in the last 10 years, we have transitioned from roughly 2.5 million US residents per year turning 65 to 3.5 million per year, and that number will trend up to almost 4.5 million by 2025 before it starts trending down again.

This seismic shift will have a huge impact on the economy, as the traditional working age population of 20–64 will transition from growing 1.0 percent per year for decades to growing 0.25 percent per year. 20- to 64-year-olds earn and spend the most, so you can almost guarantee that the economy will grow more slowly than it has in the past.

Rick Palacios Jr.'s picture

For Rent Beating For Sale

by Rick Palacios Jr.

The stock market has changed its tune from being bullish on for-sale housing to being bullish on rental housing. Apartment stocks are up 35% YTD, and single-family rental stocks are up 5%—while the home builders are flat.

ForRentvsForSale_Q42014

Sources: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC; Thomson ONE

While survey after survey (including our own) indicates that consumers overwhelmingly want to own a home at some point in their lives, there is a big difference between the ambition to own and the ability to own. Increasingly, it appears that financially strapped families desirous of single-family living are turning to rental housing.